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Congratulations–It’s A Girl May 29, 2008

Posted by The Typist in New Orleans, NOLA, Toulouse Street.
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Is this early cyclone a harbinger of the season? Ah, wait: a closer reading of the article reminds us that the Pacific season starts May 15. Lucky them.

As for us on the other end of the Panama Canal, noted hurricane forecaster William Gray of the University of Colorado–who has spectacularly mis-estimated upcoming hurricane seasons for the last several years, –takes another look at the omens and prophecies doom. Of course he gets headline stories everywhere because he’s just so damned good at it.

Do we have to take seriously the mindless ramblings of a semi-retired emeritus who does not believe in global warming? “Gore believed in global warming almost as much as Hitler believed there was something wrong with the Jews,” he once said to raise the tone of the argument.

And now we learn that a major player in the argument that global warming is a demonstrable scientific fact back tracks on the impat of global warming on hurricanes in a new study based on a new model of hurricane behavoir.

I don’t know what’s going to happen this year. I do know I’m not going to lose any sleep over what a crack pot like Gray thinks.

And trying to read and understand how long-range hurricane forecasts are arrived at and why they differ is no more productive than looking for a forecast in a deck of cards or a pile of boudin casings.